allelhia ([info]allelhia) wrote in [info]conservatism,

Russia's "invasion" of Georgia and potential US "response"


I'm not even going to go into CNN's "coverage" of this conflict - if you'd read those reports, you'd think Russia invaded Georgia proper without provocation and Georgia is just some poor, kicked, post-communist dog that Russia is currently beating with a large stick. There's a lot more involved here, and CNN's coverage is utter shit. That said, I'm surprised by Stratfor's response - I disagree with the cold-war  analytical focus that Stratfor is putting out here. I'm rather disappointed, actually, because if I were PAYING for this information from them I'd be highly dismayed at how much this report (and the American media in general, obviously) is glossing over the factual background of this situation.

What the American media (and this article) keeps failing to mention is the fact that the region in question was an autonomous region under the Soviet Empire, separate from Georgia, and the majority of the population there supports becoming part of Russia. Imagine if Texas post-independence were then claimed as part of Mexico again but the majority of the people supported being part of the United States, then Mexico were to invade Texas in a bid to enforce it. Keep in mind that in Ossetia, the people who support the contested region being part of Russia are ethnically Ossetian (not Georgian) and historically Russian (3/4ths of the population there carries Russian passports and are Russian citizens), were part of Russia, and grew up as “Russians” – is Russia to abandon their citizens because Georgia has decided the region is theirs even when the majority of the population wants to be Russians and the land was never historically part of Georgia? There have also been reports of genocide against the Ossetians by the Georgians; bombing the cities level in the region in response to the pro-Russian sentiments so their quest for ownership of the contested region is easier to accomplish.

Georgia as only gotten cozy with the US to protect itself and have the US run interference on its behalf. It is pure political cold war and international relations 101. I think Georgia is TRYING to provoke foreign involvement on their behalf. Keep in mind that Georgia’s NATO application was recently rejected and the next time they will be up for NATO membership is this coming December – Imagine if they had become part of NATO! We’d (along with the rest of the NATO membership) would be obligated to defend them under NATO! I quite frankly see Russia’s actions as more of a response to the West’s NATO policies and the EU’s expansion into the realm of Russia’s “influence.” I think the time for action was years ago, when we first had the choice between integrating Russia back into the fold or isolating Russia by embracing the newly independent states and excluding Russia from security and economic arrangements. This current conflict is a reflection on that decision, certainly not a revenge-motive for Kosovo.

The conflict between Russia and Georgia in this area (and more generally) started way before the Kosovo independence. No one in Russia wants to invade Georgia, they just want the Georgians to stop killing Ossetians and leave them alone. Further, everyone is glossing over the fact that Georgia started this conflict… AND keep in mind that this conflict actually started almost a year ago when Russia began throwing out Georgians from the country due to escalating tension over this region with Georgia attacking peacekeeping forces located in the region since 1992. This was not a surprise overnight thing; they mobilized almost a year ago to the border when this all began (with the Russians throwing Georgians out)… So none of this was incredibly surprising to me.

Though I am glad Hubby is longer of draft age in Russia...

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[info]allelhia

August 10 2008, 16:49:23 UTC 3 years ago Edited:  August 10 2008, 17:44:18 UTC

True, the editorials are bad. I think we should just read both American and Russian sources and "average" them out. Then we might have some perspective at least.

[info]mitek7

3 years ago

[info]synobs

3 years ago

[info]snowowl

August 10 2008, 05:48:53 UTC 3 years ago

It's like pre-WWII all over again. No one today mentions that the part of Poland that Germany "invaded" all spoke German and were part of Germany before the end of WWI. But the media has the last say in things like this, always.

[info]telemann

August 10 2008, 06:00:44 UTC 3 years ago

Yah CNN's coverage of WW2 sucked.

[info]synobs

3 years ago

[info]l555l

3 years ago

[info]l555l

3 years ago

[info]l555l

3 years ago

[info]telemann

3 years ago

[info]telemann

3 years ago

[info]ytterbius

August 10 2008, 05:54:43 UTC 3 years ago

McCain stands strongly with Georgia. Obama is calling for talks (sounds good to me).

I'm really starting to wonder if the Russians, in fact, aren't the bad guys here.

[info]trevelyanl85a2

August 10 2008, 06:19:42 UTC 3 years ago

both the Russians and Georgians are making the same claims about each other.

The writer here is obviously Russian, so there is a degree of bias here in this commentary.

[info]ytterbius

3 years ago

[info]ytterbius

3 years ago

[info]mitek7

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]synobs

3 years ago

[info]l555l

August 10 2008, 06:00:45 UTC 3 years ago

I disagree fully. Russia is playing the bully, because it is becoming a fascist nation. Gotta keep the peasants angry about something...

[info]uberarcanist

August 10 2008, 06:02:59 UTC 3 years ago

I view the whole thing like a tornado. It's stupid arguing right or wrong for either side because there's a certain air of inevitability about the whole thing. Of course Russia doesn't want a robust U.S. ally on its southern border, but on the other hand we would be idiots to hang someone who wants to be an ally out to dry.

May the best (strongest) man win. Anyone who suggests talking this over has an unrealistic view of human nature.

[info]trevelyanl85a2

August 10 2008, 06:20:24 UTC 3 years ago

agreed.

[info]ytterbius

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]ytterbius

3 years ago

[info]telemann

August 10 2008, 06:04:43 UTC 3 years ago Edited:  August 10 2008, 06:06:39 UTC

Yah right.

Russia is bombing civilian targets outside the peace keeping zone, so this isn't just about restoring order in the semi-autonomous area. You also glibbly ignore Russian actions in Chechnya.

[info]trevelyanl85a2

August 10 2008, 06:20:45 UTC 3 years ago

Re: Yah right.

keep in mind the writer is Russian....

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]snoty50

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]telemann

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]telemann

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]telemann

3 years ago

[info]uberarcanist

August 10 2008, 06:16:30 UTC 3 years ago

Stratfor is a dreadful neocon propaganda organ that should be ignored by everyone.

[info]typewriterking

August 10 2008, 06:23:51 UTC 3 years ago

I've seen this episode

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

[info]trevelyanl85a2

August 10 2008, 06:24:16 UTC 3 years ago

The reason NATO denied MAPs to Georgia and the Ukraine was pressure from Russia. That, and those buggers essentially control the output of petrol to Europe.

In my view, Russia is the wrong person here and the bully. The US also knows that. South Ossetia is Georgian territory and should be Georgian territory. If they don't like the fact that Ukraine and Georgia are US allies and wanted to get NATO membership, tough. They're independent and have that sovereign right and Russia needs to back off and respect that. Maybe the Russians should focus on other things, like I don't know, winning the war in Chechnya while following human rights standards, and being you know, the democracy they claim to be?

[info]allelhia

August 10 2008, 17:18:01 UTC 3 years ago

Actually, they denied membership moreso due to the unstable political environment in both countries. NATO is pretty smart to not want to include members without stable governments (for previous three years in Ukraine) and borders (since 1990 in Georgia). South Ossetia and Abkhazia have never wanted to nor agreed to nor been actually part of Georgia. Only Abkhazia was part of the Georgian territory during the Soviet era, but BOTH regions were still autonomous under the Soviet Empire. They both have their own cultures, own populations, and were separate tribes from the Georgian population. Georgia has not had actual "borders" since it's independence; how can NATO accept a country without actual borders?

South Ossetia is not traditionally part of Georgia. There has been fighting in that region since 1990, and historically even further. Georgians and Ossetians have never coexisted peacefully and both sides can still name who of their ancestors were killed by the others. We've seen "countries" assembled like so by the withdrawing British empire, or have we forgotten India and Pakistan's conflict over Kashmir or the entire disaster of arbitrarily drawing lines in the middle east without considering the ethnic populations of each country. You are making the same mistake here thinking South Ossetia is Georgian.

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]virtual_anima

August 10 2008, 06:31:42 UTC 3 years ago

Just because Georga did something that wasn't great doesn't give russia the excuse to go bomb the living crap out of them. Your logic fails miserably.

[info]trevelyanl85a2

August 10 2008, 06:38:32 UTC 3 years ago

Agreed! hear hear!

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]mitek7

August 10 2008, 10:38:23 UTC 3 years ago

The truth about South Ossetia War, Georgia attack, and Russia's responce: http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=QhhyZjNApBg

[info]trevelyanl85a2

August 10 2008, 11:00:54 UTC 3 years ago

More like Russian lies.

Russia was the bully, Georgia was right in enforcing its law in its own territory. Russia should back off and the South Ossetians should accept the fact they're Georgians. They live in Georgia. If they love Russia so much they should gtfo.

[info]mitek7

3 years ago

[info]malasadas

3 years ago

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[info]mitek7

3 years ago

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[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]mitek7

3 years ago

[info]mitek7

3 years ago

[info]mitek7

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]mitek7

3 years ago

[info]lolinberg

3 years ago

[info]lolinberg

3 years ago

[info]lolinberg

3 years ago

[info]telemann

3 years ago

[info]mitek7

3 years ago

[info]telemann

3 years ago

[info]mitek7

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]telemann

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]l555l

3 years ago

[info]policraticus

August 10 2008, 13:56:45 UTC 3 years ago

Flush with petro-dollars, Russia wants that Eagle to truly be Imperial once again. Baltic States... you're next, then it is back to Kiev and from there, who knows? Warsaw, Budapest I am looking at you, you better tow the line. You feeling a little squeamish, Berlin? Well, shut up.

I am not sure what Georgia is worth to the US or how far we should be willing to push back, but this is the camel's nose. We are going to have to push back sometime, or just lie down. Even if we end up letting the Russians take Georgia back, or flatten it like Chechneya, they shouldn't get to do it on the cheap. We should make sure it costs them.

[info]allelhia

August 10 2008, 17:31:39 UTC 3 years ago

Russia could give a rat's ass about Georgia and does not want to take back former territories. Yes, there is an imperialistic desire still present in the Russian populace, and no one likes going from being a major power to shit in the world view, but doesn't the US have enough enemies? Shouldn't we work for integration instead of alienating a country with such potential?

I think your attitude is precisely the problem with America's view of its world position today. You are looking at this like it's the Cold War all over again, instead of trying to figure out how we can finally once and for all end the Cold War and grow through it. The US and Russia will never again be in a bilateral power structure, with the rise of China in the future and the strong economic base of China, ASEAN, the EU, and god forbid, NAFTA. The world has changed; isn't it time that our analysis changes too?

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]telemann

3 years ago

[info]mitek7

3 years ago

[info]devil_ad_vocate

August 10 2008, 15:05:12 UTC 3 years ago

"Imagine if Texas post-independence were then claimed as part of Mexico again but the majority of the people supported being part of the United States, then Mexico were to invade Texas in a bid to enforce it."

No imagination necessary: Battle of Palo Alto, 1846

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[info]uberarcanist

August 10 2008, 17:58:35 UTC 3 years ago

Why wait that long and give them time to get stronger?

[info]synobs

3 years ago

[info]usekh

August 10 2008, 17:52:54 UTC 3 years ago

Nice to see the 4th Kremlin Blogging Brigade in full effect across LJ.

[info]allelhia

August 10 2008, 18:00:07 UTC 3 years ago

:P I'm from Texas. But thanks.

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]johngorentz

August 10 2008, 18:06:02 UTC 3 years ago

No one in Russia wants to invade Georgia, they just want the Georgians to stop killing Ossetians and leave them alone.

I see.

How about this. Vladimir Vladimirovich once said, "the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century."

Do you agree or disagree?

[info]allelhia

August 10 2008, 18:16:02 UTC 3 years ago

Disagree. It wasn't a bad thing. Russia was supporting most of those republics anyways, as you could tell with the subsidized oil and gas to Ukraine pipeline crisis in 2006.

It's Putin's personal opinion. I'm moreso curious about why you are trying to get me to label myself with either side. I'm not a Russian nationalist, I am merely looking at this conflict from an international relations perspective and with an understanding of the conflicting issues and history.

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]mitek7

3 years ago

[info]mitek7

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]d_g_h

3 years ago

[info]mitek7

3 years ago

[info]mumbalo_jack

August 10 2008, 18:46:03 UTC 3 years ago Edited:  August 10 2008, 18:46:34 UTC

I find it hypocritical for the Russians to supply a break-away group with weapons and then protect them when they're attacked, meanwhile they slaughtered Chechens when the Chechens tried to do the same thing. On both accounts Georgia and Russia respectively used protecting territorial integrity as an excuse.

But yes, the Western media is full of shit and America keeps backing Russia into a corner with the missile-defense program and an expanding Nato. The Western media was especially biased when it came to the Kosovo dealings over the past decade.

[info]allelhia

August 10 2008, 18:57:21 UTC 3 years ago

I think the problem here is defining "break-away group". South Ossetia has never been 'part' of Georgia to be a breakaway group from Georgia, except that the Georgian government announced it as part of Georgia. How is this a break-away group if they were never part of it in the first place? South Ossetians are majority Russian citizens and believed themselves to be Russian citizens since and before Georgia's independence. North Ossetia is in Russian territory; it's only Georgia's actions and declarations that have accentuated the conflict in South Ossetia. Thus Russia is not supplying weapons to a break-away group, they're supporting their citizens in a territorial conflict stemming back over 10 years without resolution.

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]uberarcanist

August 10 2008, 18:59:11 UTC 3 years ago

Stop dropping the "genocide" card without non-Russian confirmation. This is getting annoying.

[info]allelhia

August 10 2008, 19:03:07 UTC 3 years ago Edited:  August 10 2008, 19:03:44 UTC

Love it. We should totally ignore anything that the western Media hasn't reported.

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

August 10 2008, 20:35:50 UTC 3 years ago

Here you go. Western media actually being accurate.

From Time Magazine's website

Now can we stop bitching about the Russian media reporting it as a Georgian invasion and the Western media not being biased by their coverage of it as though Russia were the aggressor?

[info]uberarcanist

August 10 2008, 20:48:33 UTC 3 years ago

Who cares? Both sides are wrongly casting this as some kind of moral conflict. It's not. Neither side has the moral high ground, and at the end of the day this is about power alone.

Russia, America:

Enough bleeding heart editorializing.

[info]johngorentz

August 10 2008, 21:31:23 UTC 3 years ago

Well, that didn't take long.

NYT: Russian Ground Forces assault vital Georgian City

No one in Russia wants to invade Georgia, yet there they are.

[info]allelhia

August 10 2008, 21:42:06 UTC 3 years ago

I think you are twisting my words here. I'm not saying Russia wouldn't go into Georgia as part of their current campaign, only that Russia doesn't want Georgia territory back as a republic. Your assumption here is than an invading force means intent to permanently recapture. In that case, I suppose we should be asking Afghanistan and Iraq to argue over which one gets to be state number 51 or state number 52 (and perhaps to discuss with Puerto Rico also :P).

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]l555l

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]the_lance

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]the_lance

3 years ago

[info]allelhia

3 years ago

[info]synobs

3 years ago

[info]kylinrouge

August 11 2008, 13:17:54 UTC 3 years ago

Russia owns. Georgia sucks. I wouldn't mind if Georgia surrendered and became a Russian territory.

[info]the_lance

August 12 2008, 04:17:31 UTC 3 years ago

That's because you fucking fail at life.

[info]kylinrouge

3 years ago

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